State of the Copper Sector in the EU

Adressing the challenge of growing copper needs for Europe

The EU currently consumes around 4 million tonnes of copper annually. While 87% of this demand tracks GDP growth, the rest is driven by three major trends: decarbonisation, digitalisation and rebuilding defence capacity.

Three demand scenarios were built for 2026-2040:

• LOW scenario: slight decline to 3.8 Mt by 2040 (CAGR -0.4%)
• REALISTIC scenario: growth to 5.3 Mt by 2040 (CAGR +1.9%)
• HIGH scenario: strong growth to 7.5 Mt by 2040 (CAGR +4.2%)

Today, EU copper supply breaks down as follows: EU-mined ore (27%), imported concentrates refined in Europe (27%), imported cathodes (18%), and recycled scrap (28%) — though the EU remains a net exporter of scrap, mostly to China and India.

Four levers can boost supply: more EU mining, more imported concentrates, more imported cathodes, or more recycling. Recycling emerges as the most powerful lever (up to 119% coverage of additional needs under the MAXIMUM scenario), while EU mining has limited potential (28-35% coverage).

Explore main key findings of the report in this interactive presentation